據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站3月30日消息 雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）基于其最新預(yù)測基準(zhǔn)（2020年為34美元/桶，2021年為44美元/桶）預(yù)計(jì)，2020年勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的全球資本支出（capex）將下降1000億美元，較2019年下降約17%。

據(jù)雷斯塔能源估計(jì)，2019年E&P資本支出達(dá)到5460億美元，從2015年和2016年的兩年暴跌中略有回升，之前從2014年8800億美元的歷史高位大幅下跌至5100億美元左右。

2020年的資本支出額將達(dá)到4500億美元，這是雷斯塔能源估計(jì)的13年來的最低水平。冠狀病毒大流行前的估計(jì)顯示，E&P同比將保持平穩(wěn)。

“隨著4月份的臨近，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國將向市場注入更多的額外石油，布倫特原油價(jià)格目前接近25美元/桶，并可能進(jìn)一步下跌。”

在疲軟的環(huán)境下，布倫特原油在2020年的平均價(jià)格將為25美元/桶，今年全球投資可能驟降至3800億美元左右，2021年降至近3000億美元，分別創(chuàng)下14年和15年來的新低。

雷斯塔能源上游分析師奧爾加·薩文科娃表示：“由于企業(yè)近年來第二次在石油市場失地，在不嚴(yán)重影響E&P業(yè)績的情況下，迅速采取行動(dòng)并達(dá)到同樣高的投資修正水平將面臨更大的挑戰(zhàn)。”

削減將主要通過減少美國頁巖活動(dòng)、推遲尚未達(dá)成最終投資決定（FID）的項(xiàng)目、推遲勘探活動(dòng)以及在常規(guī)資產(chǎn)開發(fā)和生產(chǎn)中削減成本來實(shí)現(xiàn)。

“作為成本削減方面最靈活的供應(yīng)行業(yè)，美國頁巖氣企業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)將同比減少約30%的投資。這些措施將很快反映在石油市場供應(yīng)上，2020年頁巖油供應(yīng)增長將放緩。”

王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Rystad: Global E&P capex will reach 13-year low

Global capital expenditures (capex) of exploration and production companies are expected to fall by up to $100 billion in 2020, down about 17% from 2019, Rystad Energy predicts using its latest baseline scenario of $34/bbl in 2020 and $44/bbl in 2021.

E&P capex in 2019 reached $546 billion, according to Rystad Energy estimates, having slightly recovered from a 2-year slump in 2015 and 2016 before diving to around $510 billion from 2014’s historical high of $880 billion.

Capex volumes in 2020 will be about $450 billion, the lowest in 13 years by Rystad Energy estimates. Estimates before the coronavirus pandemic indicated E&P would remain flat year-on-year.

“As April approaches, when OPEC+ producers are expected to flood the market with even more additional oil, Brent prices are now at nearly $25/bbl and are likely to decline even further.”

In a low case scenario, where Brent averages $25/bbl in 2020, global investments may plunge to around $380 billion this year, falling to almost $300 billion in 2021, a 14-year and a 15-year low, respectively.

“As companies are now losing solid oil market ground for a second time in recent years, it will be far more challenging to act quickly and reach the same high level of investment revision without taking a heavy toll on E&P’s performance,” said Rystad Energy upstream analyst Olga Savenkova.

The cuts will be achieved primarily through reduced US shale activity, delays to projects yet to reach the final investment decision (FID), deferred exploration activity, and cost cuts within development and production for conventional assets.

“As the most flexible of the supply segments in terms of cost reduction, US shale players are expected to reduce their investments by about 30% year-on-year. These measures will be quickly reflected in the oil market supply, with shale oil supply growth set to slow down in 2020.”