據4月13日Energy Voice報道，因投資者在權衡全球最大產油國減產的歷史性協議是否足以穩定需求暴跌的市場，油價在早盤大幅震蕩后走高。

倫敦原油期貨價格上漲約4%，至每桶33美元，此前歐佩克+同意從5月份開始將原油日產量削減970萬桶，從而結束了沙特和俄羅斯之間的價格戰。在墨西哥拒絕支持周四達成的最初協議后，該組織經過幾天緊張的談判后，最終達成了一項協議。

隨著石油產量下降，美國、巴西和加拿大將再減產370萬桶/天，其他20國集團(g20)國家將再減產130萬桶/天。20國集團的數字并不代表真正的自愿削減，而是反映了低油價已經對石油產量產生的影響，不過，這可能需要數月甚至一年多的時間才能實現。

自2月中旬以來，油價一直在直線下跌。歐佩克+協議是否足以穩定市場仍有待觀察，目前市場的需求損失可能高達3500萬桶/天，且庫存空間正迅速耗盡。高盛集團稱該協議是“歷史性的，但規模可能還不夠。”

截至新加坡時間下午12點49分，歐洲期貨交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchange) 6月份交割的布倫特原油價格上漲4.4%，至每桶32.85美元。上周下跌了7.7%，而去年同期為66美元/桶。6月至12月交割的布倫特原油期貨價格略有上漲。交易員認為，即使減產，現貨供應過剩的情況仍會惡化。

紐約商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交割的西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格上漲5.1%，至每桶23.91美元，上周下跌了近20%。

高盛在一份報告中指出，假設歐佩克和其他石油生產國5月份完全遵守減產協議，歐佩克+自愿減產只會導致實際日產量從第一季度水平下降430萬桶。該銀行預計4月和5月的平均日需求量將減少1900萬桶。

在拒絕了原協議中每天40萬桶的產量份額后，墨西哥將減少10萬桶/天。美國將完成墨西哥未履行的配額。

新加坡Vanda Insights創始人凡達納?哈里(Vandana Hari)表示，墨西哥的例外可能會導致歐佩克+出現裂痕，而加拿大、挪威和巴西等非歐佩克國家也沒有做出正式決定，這同樣令人失望。大家對減產目標的實現表示懷疑。

歐佩克+此前通過視頻會議進行了會面。在此之后，20國集團成員國的能源部長們在周五舉行了一次線上會議，承諾采取“一切必要措施”，維持石油生產國和消費國之間的平衡。沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司再次推遲了一項關鍵的定價決定，預計沙特石油官方售價將在周一進行公布。

鄒勤 摘譯自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

Oil jumps to $33 a barrel following landmark OPEC deal

Oil pushed higher after swinging wildly in early trading as investors weighed whether an historic deal by the world’s biggest producers to cut output would be enough to steady a market pummeled by the coronavirus.

Futures in London rose around 4% to near $33 a barrel after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to a plan to slash production by 9.7 million barrels a day starting in May, ending a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The group reached a deal following days of intense negotiations after Mexico declined to endorse the original agreement reached Thursday.

The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels on paper as their production declines, and other Group of 20 nations will cut an additional 1.3 million. The G-20 numbers don’t represent real voluntary cuts, but rather reflect the impact that low prices have already had on output and would take months, or perhaps more than a year, to occur.

Oil prices have been in freefall since the middle of February as some of the world’s biggest economies went into lockdown to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus. Whether the OPEC+ deal will be enough to steady a market where demand losses may be as much as 35 million barrels a day and storage space is rapidly running out remains to be seen. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called the agreement “historic yet insufficient”.

Brent for June delivery rose 4.4% to $32.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 12:49 p.m. in Singapore. It lost 7.7% last week and has fallen from $66 at the end of last year. The global benchmark’s June-December timespread moved slightly deeper into contango, indicating that traders see the physical glut worsening even with the output cuts.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery added 5.1% to $23.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dropping almost 20% last week.

The voluntary reductions by OPEC+ would only lead to an actual 4.3 million barrel a day cut in production from first-quarter levels, assuming full compliance by core-OPEC and 50% by other participants in May, Goldman said in a note. The bank sees demand losses in April and May averaging 19 million barrels a day.

Mexico will reduce output by 100,000 barrels a day, after rejecting its 400,000 barrel-a-day share of the original deal. President Donald Trump helped broker a compromise that allows the Latin American nation to count some of the U.S. market-driven supply decline as its own.

The exception granted to Mexico may drive cracks through OPEC+ and the lack of a formal contribution from non-OPEC nations such as Canada, Norway and Brazil is also disappointing, said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. There will be a lot of scrutiny on compliance and also skepticism that the targeted reduction can be met, she said.

The OPEC+ alliance initially met on Thursday via video conference. That was followed on Friday by a virtual gathering of G-20 energy ministers, who pledged to take “all the necessary measures” to maintain a balance between oil producers and consumers. Saudi Aramco once again delayed a key pricing decision in anticipation of final approval of the deal, with its official selling prices now expected on Monday.