據4月20日OGJ報道， 據雷斯塔能源公司估計， 4月份全球范圍內至少有190萬桶/日的石油產量已經下線，因為在連續3個月的疫情影響的需求破壞和油價下跌之后，運營商被迫關閉大量的油井。今年5月，這個數字可能會增長到至少200萬桶/天。

根據雷斯塔能源公司的數據，加拿大油砂仍然是主要的受害者，4月份關閉量為114萬桶/天，其次是伊拉克，約為30萬桶/天，委內瑞拉為27.5萬桶/天。

“在我們的追蹤中發現，上游油田停產主要是由于低油價、疫情和儲油/開采量的限制造成的非自愿停產。”

總的來說，雷斯塔能源公司估計，到2020年第二季度，全球供應將因疫情、低油價和存儲限制降至188萬桶/天。由于Fort Hills、Mildred Lake / Aurora和Kearl等油砂項目的停產，加拿大在第二季度的預計損失約為96萬桶/天，居于首位。

雷斯塔高級石油市場分析師Teodora Cowie說：“隨著庫存的增加，各國被迫大規模停產，以抵消2020年第二季度理論上2100萬桶/天的供應過剩。對于運營商而言，停產是一個非常痛苦的決定——通常在經濟上的支持下，會在一段時間內虧本運行油井，而不是完全關閉項目。但是由于基礎設施的限制，這已不再是許多內陸石油生產商的選擇了。”

還有消息稱頁巖氣區塊可能會被關閉。目前，有關美國停產的公開信息很少，但根據北達科他州石油監管機構的聲明，雷斯塔估計，3月份至少有17.5萬桶/日的產量被關閉，主要是在巴肯（Bakken）。根據美國大陸資源公司（Continental Resources）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）的最新新聞發布，預計5月份，在多個頁巖氣區塊的關閉量將達到17.7萬桶/天。

然而，據雷斯塔稱，即使在無法支付現金成本的情況下，大多數運營商也不愿關閉大量的油井，除非他們被迫關閉(即原油實際上沒有買家)。盡管美國油氣行業的決策過程肯定是由經濟原理驅動的，但這種原理并不總是適用于即時的現金流。

“未來幾個季度的總體需求和油價不確定性迫使運營商堅持撤資，這樣做是因為如果他們在同行面前折價，就意味著失去了區域市場份額。雖然低產井顯然是要關閉的目標，但我們并不希望低產井供應迅速停止，是因為這些井中的大多數都沒有與管道相連，而且在任何給定的時間點，只有一小部分低產井必須以當前的實際價格出售原油。”

“要想從低產井供應中獲得實質性回報，就需要長期價格疲軟。然而，一些專注于LTO的大型運營商已開始關閉其一些產量/經濟效益最差的舊油井，迄今為止，這些供應對宏觀形勢的總體貢獻可以忽略不計。”

舒曉玲 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

Global shut-ins surge

Globally, at least 1.9 million b/d of oil production have been booted offline in April, as operators are being forced to shut-in considerable production volumes following 3 consecutive months of COVID-19 demand destruction and falling oil prices, according to Rystad Energy estimates. In May, this will likely grow to at least 2 million b/d.

Canada oil sands continue to be the prime victim with 1.14 million b/d of shut-ins in April, followed by Iraq with around 300,000 b/d, and Venezuela with 275,000 b/d, according to Rystad Energy data.

“The upstream shut-ins in our tracker primarily include involuntary shut-ins at fields which halted production due to low oil prices, the COVID-19 outbreak, or storage/offtake constraints.”

In total, Rystad Energy estimates 2020 second quarter global outages from COVID-19, low prices, and storage constraints at 1.88 million b/d. With oil sands projects like Fort Hills, Mildred Lake/Aurora, and Kearl shuttering production, Canada leads the tally with an expected loss of about 960,000 b/d over the quarter.

“As storage fills up, countries are being forced to shut-in production on a large scale to counteract a theoretical oversupply of 21 million b/d in 2020 second quarter. Shutting-in production is a very painful decision for an operator to make – often the economics support running a well at a loss for a certain period of time rather than shutting down the project completely. But with infrastructure constraints, this is no longer an option for many landlocked producers,” said Rystad Energy Senior Oil Market Analyst Teodora Cowie.

There is also news of possible shut-ins in the shale patch. Public information on US shut-ins is currently scarce, but Rystad Energy estimates at least 175,000 b/d in production was shuttered in March, mainly in the Bakken, based on statements from the North Dakota oil regulator. For May, 177,000 b/d of shut-ins is expected across multiple shale plays, based on the latest press releases from Continental Resources and ConocoPhillips.

However, most operators are reluctant to shut-in significant volumes unless they are forced to do so (i.e. there are literally no buyers for the crude) even when they are unable to cover their cash costs, according to Rystad Energy. While the decision-making process in the US oil and gas industry is surely driven by economic rationale, this rationale doesn’t always apply to immediate cash flows.

“Overall demand and oil price uncertainty for the next several quarters are forcing operators to hold out on pulling the switch, as doing so means losing their regional market share if they fold before their peers. While stripper wells are an obvious target to turn off, we don’t anticipate a quick deactivation of stripper well supply, simply because a majority of those wells are not connected to pipelines and at any given point of time only a small portion of stripper wells has to sell crude at the current physical prices.”

“Prolonged price weakness is required to see a material response from the stripper well supply. Yet some large LTO-focused operators started shutting in some of their least productive/economic legacy wells, but the total contribution of this supply to the macro picture is so far negligible.”