據今日石油網2020年4月21日報道，疫情影響和當前的低油價環境已促使全球勘探和生產運營商削減成本，取消最重要的投資計劃外的所有投資計劃。挪威能源研究公司雷斯塔能源的一份分析報告顯示，受影響最嚴重的供應行業是地震行業，如果布倫特原油價格跌至每桶30美元，今年全球地震行業的收入預計將下降51%，如果布倫特原油價格跌至每桶20美元，今年全球地震行業的收入預計將比2019年的水平下降77%。

這些預測在很大程度上是由勘探和生產運營商大幅調整勘探支出以及全球許多國家為應對低油價而推遲頒發許可證而推動的。雷斯塔能源公司表示，根據新的市場動態，今年全球勘探支出預計將比去年的水平下降20%以上，僅海上勘探鉆井支出就至少下降12%。

在勘探活動中，受打擊最嚴重的地區將是在最近獲得的區塊中取得新的地質和地球物理研究，以及迄今在尚未核準勘探井中進行的工作。至于正在進行的海上項目，由于旅行限制和隔離規則造成的后勤物流阻滯正在影響海上作業船的人員變動，并可能導致完工延遲，這可能嚴重影響中小型公司的資產負債表。

雷斯塔能源公司油田服務分析師賓尼·巴戈說：“所有的地震公司都已經開始調整他們的商業計劃，以便更好地為這次衰退做準備。大多數地震公司都采取了削減成本的措施，包括裁員、強制休假、地震船停止作業和降低總成本?！?/span>

雷斯塔能源公司表示，總體而言，它預計多客戶地震公司能夠比地震數據采集公司更有效地適應當前的低迷態勢。多客戶數據庫可以進一步發揮拯救作用，因為與根據合同獲取數據相比，多客戶研究的成本要低得多。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，許多大型多客戶地震公司近年來都實施了輕資產業務模式，預計這些公司能夠迅速適應需求的變化。由于這些公司需要的地震船系租用，他們可以控制他們的地震活動水平，保護他們的現金流。

另一方面，使用自有地震車隊的合同數據采集模式的公司可能會受到嚴重影響，一些合同已經被取消，未來的活動預計會減少。雷斯塔能源公司表示，這些公司可能很難維持自己的地震車隊運營。

巴戈總結道：“對于大量投資于海外收購的中小企業來說，未來將是動蕩的時期，因為它們更有可能成為破產和不良資產出售的受害者。由于服務公司將優先考慮支付他們的運營成本，為了生存，市場可能會在一段時間內再次降低合同價格和租船費率。”

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

Seismic industry revenues to nearly evaporate in 2020 – Rystad Energy

The COVID-19 pandemic and the current low-oil-price environment have pushed global exploration and production operators to cut costs, scrapping all but the most vital of their investment plans. The supply industry that will suffer the most as a result is seismic, as shown by a Rystad Energy analysis, with revenues estimated to fall this year by 51% in a $30 Brent scenario and by 77% if the Brent falls to $20, compared to levels seen in 2019.

The forecasts are driven largely by considerable revisions in exploration spending from the E&P operators and delayed licensing rounds by many governments across the world in response to low oil prices. Rystad Energy said under the new market dynamics, it expects exploration spending to drop by more than 20% from its 2019 levels, with at least a 12% decline seen by offshore exploration drilling alone.

Within exploration activities, the hardest-hit area will be the acquisition of new geological and geophysical studies in recently acquired blocks and work on yet-to-be-approved exploration wells. As for the ongoing offshore projects, logistical challenges caused by travel restrictions and quarantine rules are impacting crew changes for offshore vessels and could result in completion delays that could severely hit the balance sheets of small and medium-sized companies.

“Seismic companies across the board have started to adjust their business plans to better prepare themselves for this downturn. Most companies have implemented cost-cutting measures which include layoffs, furloughs, cold stacking of vessels and general cost reductions,” says Rystad Energy Oilfield Service Analyst Binny Bagga.

In general, Rystad Energy said it expects multi-client seismic companies to be able to adjust to the current downturn more efficiently than the seismic data acquisition companies. Multi-client data libraries could further act as a savior because of the substantially lower cost associated with the multi-client studies compared to when data is acquired under a contract.

Rystad Energy said many of the major multi-client seismic companies have in recent years implemented asset-light business models and it expects these companies to be able to quickly adapt to changes in demand. Since these companies charter the vessels they need, they can control their level of activity and protect their cash flows.