據(jù)4月28日OGJ 報道，Rystad能源公司在分析了來自大陸資源公司、Cimarex能源公司、康菲石油公司、PDC能源公司、歐芹能源公司（ParsleyEnergy）和Enerplus公司的信息后表示，美國5月和6月的石油減產(chǎn)量可能至少達(dá)到30萬桶/天，較4月預(yù)計的約10萬桶/天有所增加。

有幾家生產(chǎn)商特別提到了由于油井關(guān)閉而導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)量下降，而另外一些生產(chǎn)商則沒有具體說明減產(chǎn)原由。

Rystad Energy估計，頁巖油生產(chǎn)商將通過減少新投產(chǎn)油井?dāng)?shù)量的方式，盡可能地兌現(xiàn)已宣布的減產(chǎn)承諾。因此，基數(shù)下降可能是報告中產(chǎn)量削減的一個重要部分。然而，考慮到典型的頁巖作業(yè)模式，從3月份開始的開工數(shù)量下降，將導(dǎo)致5月份投產(chǎn)的油井?dāng)?shù)量減少，最終在6月份之前并不會導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量峰值的下降。

因此，考慮到目前市場形勢的嚴(yán)峻程度以及4月份已經(jīng)宣布的大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，頁巖油生產(chǎn)商也可能會采取關(guān)井措施，以使市場恢復(fù)平衡。

大陸資源公司采取了迄今為止最激烈舉措。預(yù)計4月份該公司原油日產(chǎn)量將減少約6.9萬桶/天，然后在2020年5月和6月減少近15萬桶/天。未來幾周，可能會有更多公司采取類似行動。

康菲石油表示，將大幅削減48個州的石油產(chǎn)量。該公司表示，5月份將削減12.5萬桶/天，預(yù)計該公司的石油凈產(chǎn)量為6萬桶/天。巴肯油田預(yù)計將是減產(chǎn)的主要地區(qū)之一。康菲石油還表示，將逐月解決減產(chǎn)的需求，這暗示著減產(chǎn)很可能持續(xù)很長一段時間。

由于油價疲軟，Cimarex Energy已決定將5月份的產(chǎn)量削減30%，約2.7萬桶/天。同樣，PDC能源公司計劃將5月和6月的產(chǎn)量減少30%，該公司還計劃在第三季度保持一定水平的減產(chǎn)，并在第四季度取消減產(chǎn)。因此，預(yù)計2020年5月和6月PDC能源石油日產(chǎn)量將減少2.7萬桶。

盡管歐芹能源公司沒有就未來幾個月的減產(chǎn)給出明確的指導(dǎo)，但其首席執(zhí)行官馬特·加拉格爾(Matt Gallagher)在4月初曾提到，為了應(yīng)對當(dāng)前的市場狀況，該公司已開始關(guān)閉400口“產(chǎn)量較低的油井”。并預(yù)計，從4月到6月，油井關(guān)閉的產(chǎn)能可能占到公司的20%，即每天2.2萬桶。

Enerplus表示，該公司已開始暫時關(guān)閉威利斯頓盆地的部分油井。4月份的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將受到關(guān)井活動的輕微影響。該公司預(yù)計，5月份將減少更多的產(chǎn)量，以應(yīng)對油價下跌。

據(jù)估計，已發(fā)布聲明的公司的減產(chǎn)將遍及美國48個州，但威利斯頓盆地的產(chǎn)量可能受到的影響最大。其中巴肯油田在總產(chǎn)量中占有很高的份額，其次是特拉華州二疊紀(jì)盆地。

王佳晶 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

US oil shut-in at least 300,000 b/d during May and June

US oil production cuts in May and June could amount to at least 300,000 b/d, an increase from about 100,000 b/d of cuts projected for April, said Rystad Energy after analyzing communication from Continental Resources, Cimarex Energy, ConocoPhillips, PDC Energy, Parsley Energy, and Enerplus Corp.

Several producers have specifically mentioned production declines as a result of well shut-ins, while others did not specify whether production curtailments would come naturally as a result of a reduction in new wells put on production, or from shut-ins of already producing wells.

Rystad Energy currently estimates that shale producers will try to deliver on announced cuts as much as possible by reducing the number of new wells put into production. Thus, base decline could provide a material portion of the reported cut. However, given typical shale operational patterns, the decline in started jobs that began in March will result in a lower number of wells put on production in May, which ultimately will not lead to a drop in peak production until June.

Therefore, given the severity of the current market situation and the significant production curtailments announced already in April, shale producers are also likely to implement well shut-ins to bring the market into balance.

Continental Resources stands out as having taken the most drastic action thus far. About 69,000 b/d is expected to be reduced from Continental in April, followed by a cut of almost 150,000 b/d in May and June 2020. More companies are likely to follow with similar actions over the next few weeks.

ConocoPhillips said it will make significant production curtailments across its portfolio in the Lower 48. The company mentioned 125,000 boe/d of gross output will be curtailed during the month of May, estimated at 60,000 b/d of oil net to the company.

As with Continental, the Bakken play is anticipated to be one of the primary regions for production cuts. ConocoPhillips also said it would be addressing the need for production curtailments month-by-month, hinting that cuts could easily be prolonged into the future.

Cimarex Energy has elected to cut its May output by 30% or around 27,000 b/d due to the weakness in realized prices. Similarly, PDC Energy plans to reduce its May and June output by up to 30% as a result of production curtailments. The company also assumes that a certain level of reductions will be maintained in the third quarter and eliminated by the fourth quarter. The production cut for PDC Energy is thus estimated at 27,000 b/d in May and June 2020.

While Parsley has not provided a clear guidance on production curtailments over the next few months, its chief executive, Matt Gallagher, mentioned in early April that the company has begun to shut in 400 “l(fā)ower-producing wells” in response to current market conditions. Rystad Energy estimates that such shut-ins could account for about 20% of Parsley output, or 22,000 b/d from April to June.

Enerplus said it started to temporarily shut in selected wells across the Williston basin. April production is expected to be modestly impacted by shut-in activity, but the company expects to shut in more production in May in response to weaker oil pricing.

“The estimated cuts from companies which have already made statements will be spread across the Lower 48 states, but production in the Williston basin will likely be affected the most. The Bakken play accounts for a high share of combined output, closely followed by Permian Delaware.