據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶5月1日消息稱，雷斯塔能源的最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，今年全球勘探與生產(chǎn)（E＆P）收入將下降約1萬億美元。

雷斯塔強(qiáng)調(diào)，該行業(yè)營(yíng)收將減少1.47萬億美元，較去年的2.47萬億美元減少40%。

雷斯塔稱，現(xiàn)金流也將暴跌，勘探與生產(chǎn)部門的自由現(xiàn)金流量將縮減至1410億美元。雷斯塔強(qiáng)調(diào)說，這是去年的三分之一。

預(yù)計(jì)上游支出也將下降25%，從2019年的5300億美元降至今年的4100億美元。雷斯塔指出，美國(guó)頁巖油仍然是造成這一特別下降的最大原因，其次是油砂生產(chǎn)商。

雷斯塔警告說，削減資本支出將對(duì)新發(fā)現(xiàn)的油田和企業(yè)對(duì)新項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行最終投資決策的能力產(chǎn)生“特別強(qiáng)烈”的影響，并補(bǔ)充說，就批準(zhǔn)投資總額而言，今年可能是自上世紀(jì)50年代以來批準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目數(shù)量最少的一年。

雷斯塔對(duì)石油需求的最新預(yù)測(cè)為同比下降10.4%，即1030萬桶/天。該公司預(yù)計(jì)4月份市場(chǎng)將遭受最大沖擊，石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將同比下降2630萬桶。

曹海斌 摘譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

Global E&P Revenues to Fall by $1 Trillion

Global exploration and production (E&P) revenues will fall by about $1 trillion this year, according to a new forecast by Rystad Energy.

The drop will see revenues come in at $1.47 trillion and marks a decline of 40 percent from last year’s figure of $2.47 trillion, Rystad highlighted.

Cash flow is also set to plunge, according to Rystad, which estimates that free cash flow for the E&P sector will shrink to $141 billion. This is one third of what it was last year, Rystad highlighted.

Upstream spending is expected to fall by 25 percent too, from $530 billion in 2019 to $410 billion this year. Rystad outlined that U.S. shale remains the largest contributor to this particular drop, followed by oil sands producers.

The capital expenditure cuts will have a “particularly strong” impact on discoveries and companies’ ability to proceed with final investment decisions on new projects, Rystad warned, adding that this year might be marked by the lowest project sanctioning activity since the 1950s in terms of total sanctioned investments.

Rystad’s latest forecast for oil demand projects a decrease of 10.4 percent for 2020, or 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) year over year. The company expects April to take the biggest hit, with demand for oil estimated to fall by 26.3 million bpd year on year.