據5月5日Rigzone報道稱，5月份，全球石油供需失衡狀態將改善，至每天1360萬桶。

Rystad能源預測6月份將進一步降至610萬桶/日，并稱，盡管全球供需失衡情況有所改善，但庫存仍將超過剩余的全球庫存，數周內庫存將填滿。

Rystad能源石油市場分析師Louise Dickson表示：“雖然這看起來比4月份有了大幅改善，但石油市場并沒有神奇地得到修復，庫存問題仍然隱約可見，只有縮減產量，并給市場一些喘息的空間。”

根據Rystad能源公司表示，如果到2020年5月19日WTI合同到期時，還沒有足夠的產量被關閉，那么WTI價格暴跌現象仍將會發生，不排除蔓延到其他原油混合油。但公司仍然相信油價會復蘇，可能最早從6月份開始，它認為2022年市場將面臨緊縮的風險，價格遠高于危機前的水平。

Rystad表示：“2022年需求將恢復到高于疫情發生前的水平， OPEC正在削減石油產量，美國頁巖氣和全球長周期生產的供應能力都將喪失，這將有助于實現這一目標。”。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Global Oil Glut Set to Halve in May

The global imbalance between oil supply and demand is set to halve to 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in May.

That’s according to a new Rystad Energy analysis, which predicted a further fall to 6.1 million bpd in June. Rystad warned, however, that despite the improvement, the stock build will still overwhelm remaining global storage, which it says will fill “in weeks”.

“While this may seem like a drastic improvement from April, the oil market is not magically fixed,” Rystad Energy Oil Market Analyst Louise Dickson said in a company statement.

“The storage issue still looms large and will spill over onto trading floors, as buyers are left with crude they cannot physically place, and into the boardrooms of oil companies which must make very costly but necessary decisions to scale back production and give the market some breathing space,” Dickson added.

According to Rystad, if sufficient production isn’t shuttered by May 19 - the expiration of the WTI June 2020 contract - then the potential remains for another “nightmare WTI price collapse”, which it does not rule out spreading to other crude blends.

“However, given that most oil futures outside of WTI do not require the buyer to physically take oil delivery, and instead have cash settlement options, the destruction to other benchmarks should be tamer,” Rystad stated.

Rystad outlined that it expects the oil price bottom is “in front of us rather than behind us” but added that it still believes in an oil price recovery, “possibly starting as early as June”. Rystad also highlighted that it sees a risk for a tight market in 2022 with prices “much higher than pre-crisis levels”.

“This will be facilitated by a recovery in demand to above pre-Covid-19 levels in 2022, ongoing OPEC+ cuts, and a loss of supply capacity in both U.S. shale and long-cycled global production,” Rystad stated.