據(jù)世界石油5月9日報道，IHS Markit預計，2020年第二季度的石油需求將比一年前減少2200萬桶/天。

這種需求的崩潰，加上低油價、庫存限制和政府居家指令，正在推動全球范圍內(nèi)超常規(guī)的減產(chǎn)和停產(chǎn)。

IHS Markit副總裁兼石油市場主管吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示“全球石油供應(yīng)正迅速、殘酷地調(diào)整到較低的水平，這是一次大規(guī)模的停產(chǎn)。所有生產(chǎn)國都受制于殘酷的市場力量，盡管可能受到影響的程度不一，但都不可避免。”

北美和歐佩克成員國，以及獨聯(lián)體國家，尤其是俄羅斯，預計將成為減產(chǎn)的主要力量。

究竟在哪里、為什么以及如何削減供應(yīng)是一個復雜的問題，石油的生產(chǎn)環(huán)境多種多樣，這意味著沒有固定的方式，決定因素也不盡相同。

IHS Markit確定了影響減產(chǎn)決策的三個關(guān)鍵因素。首先是技術(shù)和后勤因素——包括重啟的復雜性。技術(shù)因素與作業(yè)復雜程度有關(guān)，如地形、油田衰竭、油藏驅(qū)動、生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)配置和油藏流體組成。復雜性和油田成熟度會影響重新啟動生產(chǎn)的難易程度，包括是否會永遠失去產(chǎn)出或干脆推遲產(chǎn)出。其他與技術(shù)相關(guān)的因素包括健康、安全以及工人的可用性。物流因素包括運輸需求、運輸選擇和石油儲存可用性。

其次是財務(wù)方面的因素，包括營業(yè)利潤率、當前油價水平、油價的未來預期、運營商的財務(wù)狀況、資金可用性和其他支出選擇——比如決定將資金用于其他項目。

第三是監(jiān)管和合同條件，包括確保遵守政府的關(guān)井要求、政府調(diào)整生產(chǎn)的命令和合同義務(wù)。遵守歐佩克協(xié)議削減產(chǎn)量的政府命令就屬于這一類。比如，提供伴生氣(即原油井的副產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)生的氣)的義務(wù)是可能影響生產(chǎn)決策的合同條件。對于與下游資產(chǎn)(如煉油廠和石化工廠)整合的上游業(yè)務(wù)，下游市場狀況和下游資產(chǎn)需求可能會影響有關(guān)上游產(chǎn)出的決策，特別是當這些資產(chǎn)歸聯(lián)合所油田時。

洪偉立 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Crashing oil demand drives a 17 MMbpd global output cut in Q2

Consulting firm IHS Markit expects oil demand in the second quarter of 2020 to be 22 MMbpd less than a year ago.

This collapse in demand combined with low oil prices, storage constraints and government ordered cuts are driving what is an extraordinary level of liquids production cuts and shut-ins around the world.

“The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway. All producing countries are subject to the same brutal market forces. Some will be impacted more than others. But there is nowhere to hide,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets at IHS Markit.

North America and OPEC members, as well as countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States—particularly Russia—are expected to be the source of most of the production cuts.

Exactly where, why and how supply cuts will take place is a complex matter. There is no fixed equation. Oil is produced in a wide variety of environments, which means there is no fixed equation and decision factors vary.

IHS Markit has identified three key factors that shape production cut decisions:

Technical and logistical factors—including restart complexity. Technical factors relate to the degree of operational complexity such as terrain, field depletion, reservoir drive, production system configuration and reservoir fluid composition. Complexity and field maturity influence how easy or difficult restarting production could be, including whether output could be forever lost or simply deferred. Other technical-related factors are health, safety, and worker availability. Logistical factors are offtake demand, transport options, and oil storage availability.

Financial considerations. These include operating margins, current oil price levels, future expectations of the oil price, financial health of the operator, capital availability and alternative spending options—such as deciding to spend money on other projects.

Regulatory and contractual conditions. These include ensuring compliance with government requirements for shutting-in wells, government orders to adjust production, and contractual obligations. Government orders to comply with the OPEC+ agreement to cut production fall into this category. Obligation to deliver associated gas (i.e. gas that is produced as byproduct from a crude oil well) is an example of a contractual condition that could impact production decisions. For upstream operations that are integrated with downstream assets—such as refineries and petrochemical facilities—downstream market conditions and needs of downstream assets could impact decisions about upstream output, especially when the assets are under combined ownership.