據(jù)彭博社5月12日報道，全球最大的液化天然氣出口國受到需求疲弱和存儲空間不足的限制，可能很快就會面臨一個嚴(yán)峻的選擇:要么限制產(chǎn)量，要么引發(fā)一場爭奪市場份額的戰(zhàn)斗，天然氣市場可能會和石油市場一樣，價格下跌。

卡塔爾從今年2月開始將液化天然氣從亞洲運往到歐洲西北部，但這種權(quán)宜之計沒有持續(xù)多久，因為疫情很快席卷了歐洲最大的幾個經(jīng)濟(jì)體，導(dǎo)致卡塔爾很難找到存放未售出貨物的儲存地。

卡塔爾關(guān)于下一步行動的決定可能會產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。在原油價格暴跌對液化天然氣價格構(gòu)成壓力之際，削減主要出口產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量將擠壓政府收入。減產(chǎn)還可能促使澳大利亞奪取卡塔爾作為全球最大出口國的地位。

長期以來，歐洲相對透明的價格使其成為貨物運輸?shù)氖走x目的地。現(xiàn)在，隨著需求的下降，越來越多的天然氣被注入了儲存設(shè)施，存儲空間很快就被填滿了。

卡塔爾向歐洲西北部輸送液化天然氣的數(shù)量在4月份達(dá)到峰值。過去三周，由四艘油輪組成的船隊抵達(dá)了比利時的澤布呂赫港進(jìn)口終端，國有卡塔爾石油公司已將這里的全部進(jìn)口產(chǎn)能預(yù)訂到2044年。

咨詢公司伍德曼肯茲分析師格雷厄姆·弗里德曼（Graham Freedman）表示:“需求低迷，今年這個時候的庫存量太高。未來12到18個月，這種情況似乎還會持續(xù)下去。”

卡塔爾似乎正在放緩對歐洲的出口。進(jìn)口時間表顯示，5月份運往歐洲西北部的液化天然氣運輸量不會像4月份那樣上升，目前有17艘液化天然氣運輸船在阿聯(lián)酋海岸附近閑置，多于往年同期水平。管理該國出口的卡塔爾石油公司沒有回復(fù)記者的置評請求。

一旦亞洲天然氣需求恢復(fù)，該公司無需將貨物轉(zhuǎn)往歐洲，但這可能需要好幾個月的時間。與此同時，國際天然氣聯(lián)盟(International Gas Union)今年4月表示，全球液化天然氣過剩可能會持續(xù)到本世紀(jì)中葉。

天然氣生產(chǎn)商尚未形成一個像石油輸出國組織那樣的卡特爾組織，可以領(lǐng)導(dǎo)全球削減石油產(chǎn)量、支撐原油價格的舉措實施。液化天然氣供應(yīng)商不希望天然氣價格得到如此協(xié)調(diào)的支持，今年以來，天然氣價格已下跌逾一半，降至每百萬英國熱量約2美元。

在爭奪市場份額的戰(zhàn)斗中，卡塔爾將在競爭對手面前占據(jù)優(yōu)勢。根據(jù)咨詢公司Rystad Energy的數(shù)據(jù)，該公司在拉斯拉凡(Ras Laffan)的工廠生產(chǎn)的液化天然氣，是全球第三便宜的天然氣。即便如此，不斷下跌的價格正將卡塔爾的液化天然氣推向盈虧平衡點。

對于剛剛開始生產(chǎn)、仍背負(fù)沉重開支的美國運營商來說，負(fù)天然氣價格將尤其具有破壞性。低于零的價格也可能導(dǎo)致尚未獲得融資的液化項目延期。液化天然氣是被冷卻成液體的天然氣，生產(chǎn)商可以在不需要管道的情況下將其出口到遙遠(yuǎn)的目的地。

美國生產(chǎn)商的成本高于卡塔爾，在客戶取消了6月份的幾批發(fā)貨后，它們可能會減產(chǎn)。與此同時，挪威和俄羅斯已經(jīng)削減了對歐洲的天然氣出口。

洪偉立 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Qatar and Its Lose-Lose Problem in Global Gas Fight

Hemmed in by weak demand and scarce storage, the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas may soon face a stark choice: curb output or ignite a battle for market share that has the potential -- just as in the oil market -- to turn gas prices negative.

Qatar began in February redirecting LNG cargoes away from Asia, where the coronavirus was hobbling sales, and sending them instead to northwestern Europe. That quick fix didn’t last, as the pandemic soon engulfed Europe’s biggest economies and left Qatar struggling for places to park unsold cargoes.

The small Persian Gulf state’s decision about what to do next could have far-reaching consequences. Cutting production of its main export would squeeze government revenue at a time when crude’s collapse is adding to pressure on LNG prices, some of which are linked to oil. An output cut might also enable Australia to strike a blow to Qatar’s national pride by snatching its crown as the world’s top exporter.

Europe’s comparatively transparent pricing has long made it a favored destination for cargoes. Now, with demand there slumping, more gas is going into storage facilities, and those are filling up fast.

Deliveries of Qatari LNG to northwestern Europe peaked in April. A convoy of four tankers arrived over the last three weeks at Belgium’s Zeebrugge import terminal, where state-owned Qatar Petroleum has booked all the import capacity until 2044.

“Demand is depressed, and storage is too high for this time of year,” said Graham Freedman, an analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “It looks like it’s going to continue for the next 12 to 18 months.”

Qatar appears to be slowing shipments to Europe. Import schedules suggest deliveries into northwestern Europe won’t climb in May as they did in April, and 17 LNG tankers -- several more than usual for this time of year -- are currently idling off the emirate’s coast. Qatar Petroleum, which manages the country’s exports, didn’t respond when asked to comment.

QP won’t need to divert cargoes to Europe once demand for gas in Asia recovers, but that could take many months. Meanwhile, the global LNG surplus could persist into the middle of the decade, the International Gas Union said in April.

Gas producers have yet to form a cartel like the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which currently leads global efforts to slash oil production and prop up crude. LNG suppliers can hope for no such coordinated support for gas prices, which have plunged by more than half this year to about $2 per million British thermal units.

In a battle for market share, Qatar would have an edge on its rivals; its plant at Ras Laffan produces the world’s third-cheapest LNG, according to consultant Rystad Energy. Even so, tumbling prices are pushing Qatar’s LNG toward break-even levels.

Negative gas prices would be especially damaging for U.S. operators that only recently started production and are still burdened with heavy expenditures. Sub-zero prices could also cause delays for any liquefaction projects yet to secure financing. LNG is gas that has been chilled into a liquid, which producers can then export to far-flung destinations without the need for pipelines.

Producers in the U.S. have higher costs than Qatar and will probably cut output after customers canceled several shipments for June. Norway and Russia have already trimmed gas exports to Europe.?