美國頁巖行業或將拖累石油市場復蘇

中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價5月17日報道，全球石油市場遭受重創，但最嚴重的沖擊莫過于美國的頁巖地區。上個月，油價暴跌導致WTI基準價格跌至每桶近40美元的歷史最低點。油價暴跌是國際石油需求嚴重下降的結果，而隨后沙特和俄羅斯這兩個主要歐佩克+成員國之間的油價戰爭使情況變得更加糟糕。在這兩個石油國家的較量中，全球石油供過于求的局面迅速擴大，導致了嚴重的供應過剩和石油儲備空間不足，這種狀況一直持續到了今天。

在全球石油市場遭受這些打擊之后，二疊紀盆地被一波破產浪潮席卷，工人休假或被解雇。據《休斯敦紀事報》報道，美國的鉆機數量比一年前減少了62%，如今活躍的鉆機數量相當于十多年前（2009年）的水平。福布斯報道，整個北美大陸, 油井關閉的數量和整體石油產量下降的幅度甚至超過分析師預測, 由于油價低、儲油罐滿，石油行業正按部就班地在6月底前將每天約170萬桶的產量撤出市場。

無論在美國還是在其他地方，石油生產的巨大停滯的情形下，存在的一線希望是，石油市場正在緩慢地顯示出一些復蘇的早期跡象。周一，沙特阿拉伯發表了一份聲明稱，未來幾個月將實施更嚴厲的減產措施，隨后，市場反應迅速，價格(盡管幅度不大)上漲。沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco) 6月份日產量將從4月份的1200多萬桶下降到750萬桶。科威特和阿拉伯聯合酋長國還宣布，其減產量甚至超過了承諾的水平。這是歐佩克自本月1日起每日減產970萬桶之后的額外減產。

隨著中東減產和美國頁巖氣市場經濟放緩,許多分析師看好石油市場的未來,。據《福布斯》援引Rystad Energy的一份新聞稿稱，一些分析師甚至預測，到2025年，市場供應量將大幅不足，達到每天500萬桶的水平。還有一些人稱，油價將從100美元/桶的峰值掉下來，這個數字是人們預測2050年的油價。

《福布斯》寫道:“一個大問題是，美國頁巖油生產商是否會在油價高企時重新啟動生產或完井作業，以賺取正現金流。”朱利安·李本周在彭博社發表的一篇文章中也表達了類似的擔憂:“目前面臨著雙重風險：過早解除封鎖可能導致病毒感染和死亡的第二次高峰；過早放松對石油生產的嚴格限制可能導致第二次油價暴跌。”總而言之，美國頁巖需要減速才能生產。

但是，美國把大部分減產和緊縮承諾留給歐佩克國家和中東國家，這不僅危及美國自身石油市場的反彈，而且危及整個全球石油市場的恢復潛力。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Could Crush The Oil Market Recovery

Oil markets have taken a beating around the globe, but nowhere has the pummeling been worse than in the United States shale patch, where the oil price crash plunged the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark to nearly $40 below zero per barrel last month in a historic rock bottom moment. The oil price crash was the result of a severe decline in international oil demand thanks to the spread of the novel coronavirus, made infinitely worse by an ensuing oil price war between the leading OPEC+ members of Saudi Arabia and Russia. As the two petro-nations duked it out, the global oil glut ballooned to a massive oversupply and oil storage deficiency that persists today.

In the wake of these blows to the global oil markets, the Permian Basin has been swept with a wave of bankruptcies and fired and furloughed workers. “The U.S. rig count has plunged by 62 percent from a year ago,” and is now equal to the number of rigs drilling over a decade ago, in 2009, according to the Houston Chronicle. Across the North American continent, the shutting in of wells and overall oil production has plummeted even faster than analysts predicted, and “the industry is on pace to take about 1.7 million barrels a day of production off the market by the end of June in response to low prices and full storage tanks,” reports Forbes.

The silver lining to this huge halt in production, both in the United States and internationally, is that oil markets are slowly showing some early signs of recuperation. On Monday an announcement from Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer after the U.S., announced that it will impose even more austere production cuts in the coming months, and markets quickly (albeit modestly) rose in response. “Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil company, will produce 7.5 million barrels a day in June, down from more than 12 million in April,” reported Barron’s. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also announced that they would cut their production levels by even more than they had committed to. This is on top of OPEC’s 9.7 million barrels a day production cut, which began on the first of this month.

With the production cuts from the Middle East and economic slowdown in the U.S. shale play, many analysts are bullish about the future of oil markets, with some even predicting “a massively under-supplied market — to the tune of 5 million barrels a day — by 2025,” according to Forbes in reference of a Rystad Energy press release, and others claiming that $100 barrels are coming down the pike.

“But a big question is whether U.S. shale producers could spoil the party by restarting shut-in production or completing wells the moment that prices rise high to earn any positive cash flow,” writes Forbes. Julian Lee expressed similar concerns in an opinion piece for Bloomberg this week, writing: “There’s a double risk on the horizon: Just as lifting lockdowns too soon could bring a second spike in virus infections and deaths, loosening the hard-fought restraint in oil production too soon risks a second oil-price collapse.” Summing up these sentiments, just this week Oilprice published the rather succinct headline and assessment that “U.S. Shale Needs To Slow Down To Survive”.

But the United States, by leaving most of the production cuts and austere commitments to OPEC countries and the Middle East, is endangering more than just its own oil rebound--it’s endangering the comeback potential for the entire global oil market.