據(jù)5月20日Oil Monster消息：雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）估計(jì)，今年全球天然氣需求將下降近2%，原因是受疫情影響，商業(yè)和工業(yè)對(duì)天然氣的需求下降。據(jù)估算，全球天然氣需求總量將從去年的3951億立方米降至近3878億立方米。低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的4038億立方米， Rystad Energy天然氣和電力市場(chǎng)主管卡洛斯·托雷斯-迪亞茲表示：“ 2020年將是自2009年以來(lái)消費(fèi)沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)的第一年。對(duì)于一個(gè)習(xí)慣于年增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)3%的行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，這將是一個(gè)沉重的打擊。”

各國(guó)對(duì)天然氣需求的影響因封鎖措施的嚴(yán)重性以及電力結(jié)構(gòu)和工業(yè)活動(dòng)等因素而異。有能力從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)換為天然氣的國(guó)家，需求下降的影響較小。

意大利是受影響最大的國(guó)家之一，在封鎖期間，電力和工業(yè)部門(mén)的天然氣需求平均損失高達(dá)23％。

而美國(guó)的天然氣需求依然旺盛，主要是因?yàn)殡娏π袠I(yè)的需求不斷增長(zhǎng)，彌補(bǔ)了其它行業(yè)需求的下降。過(guò)去兩周，來(lái)自電力部門(mén)的天然氣需求平均每天7.08億立方米，與去年的水平基本持平。但在目前的封鎖期間，也有需求比去年水平高出15%以上的時(shí)期。主要原因是天然氣價(jià)格仍然很低，而煤炭?jī)r(jià)格也有所下降，天然氣在發(fā)電方面仍然更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。因此，美國(guó)電力需求的下降，將煤炭而非天然氣擠出了發(fā)電行業(yè)。

澳大利亞，德國(guó)和韓國(guó)等許多其他國(guó)家也擁有較大的煤制氣轉(zhuǎn)換能力，這些國(guó)家的需求響應(yīng)可能與美國(guó)類(lèi)似。

關(guān)于對(duì)天然氣需求的實(shí)際影響仍然存在很多不確定性。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的放緩以及刺激計(jì)劃對(duì)重新激活商業(yè)和工業(yè)活動(dòng)的影響，都可能使汽油需求規(guī)模縮小。

這種不確定性代表了今年剩余時(shí)間天然氣需求的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，Rystad Energy預(yù)測(cè)，基于今年整個(gè)勘探開(kāi)發(fā)行業(yè)的投資活動(dòng)較低，2020年天然氣產(chǎn)量將在4000億立方米左右。

馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Global Demand for Natural Gas Will Drop 2% in 2020

Rystad Energy estimates global natural gas demand to fall by almost 2% this year as a result of the lower activity as commercial and industrial demand for natural gas is declining as most countries around the world impose lockdowns to limit the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. In absolute terms, Rystad Energy expects global gas demand to total close to 3,878 billion cubic meters in 2020, down from 3,951 Bcm last year. In Rystad Energy’s pre-Covid-19 estimates, this year’s natural gas demand was expected to grow to 4,038 Bcm. Rystad Energy’s Head of Gas and Power Markets Carlos Torres-Diaz said “2020 will be the first year since 2009 where there will be no growth in consumption. This will be a hard blow for an industry accustomed to yearly growth rates of more than 3%.”

The impact on gas demand has varied substantially from country to country depending on the severity of lockdown measures and factors such as the power mix and industrial activity. Countries with capacity to switch from coal to gas will see less effect from the demand drop.

Italy is one of the countries that have been the most affected by Covid-19, and as a result the government decided to impose a strict lockdown starting in the beginning of March. The average loss in gas demand from the power and industrial sectors has been a staggering 23% over the duration of the lockdown. However, Italy has little coal-power generation capacity, meaning that any reduction in power demand will represent a similar drop in gas-for-power demand as a it is difficult to achieve a reduction in generation from renewable sources.

Other European countries have seen similar effects, with the International Energy Agency estimating a total loss in weather-adjusted gas demand of 25% in France and 19% in the UK.

On the other hand, demand in the US continues to thrive, mostly as a result of increasing demand from the power sector which has compensated for the drop in other sectors. Gas demand from the power sector has averaged 25 billion cubic feet per day (708 million cubic meters per day) over the last two weeks, which is practically in line with last year’s level. But there have been periods during the current lockdown where demand has been more than 15% above last year’s level. The main reason for this is that gas prices remain very low, and while coal prices have also dropped, gas is still more competitive in power generation. The drop in US power demand has therefore pushed coal out of the generation stack rather than gas.

There are many other countries that also have a large coal-to-gas switching capacity, such as Australia, Germany and South Korea, which could see similar demand responses to the one seen in the US.

A lot of uncertainty remains about the actual impact on gas demand. The possibility of new lockdowns, the slowdown in economic growth and the effect of stimulus packages on reactivating commercial and industrial activity could all tip the gas-demand scale.

This uncertainty represents a downside risk for gas demand for the rest of the year. However, Rystad Energy has forecasted natural gas production to be around 4,000 Bcm in 2020 based on the lower investment activity expected across the E&P industry during this year.