據6月11日Petroleum Economist報道，與煤炭和石油相比，天然氣對疫情的影響將更具彈性，但并不是說能避免受影響，國際能源署預測，2020年天然氣需求將出現有史以來最大降幅。

根據國際能源署今天發布的五年天然氣市場預測顯示，由于2019疫情影響和冬季異常溫和氣候，2020年全球天然氣需求預計將下降4%，即1500億美元。四分之三的削減將發生在歐洲、北美、亞洲和歐亞大陸等成熟市場。

根據國際能源機構執行主任法提赫·比羅爾的說法，在中國和印度的政策推動下，需求預計將在2021年和2022年出現反彈，但不會恢復到以往的水平。該機構預計，與大流行前的相比，到2025年，需求將減少750億立方米/年。

根據數據，2020年第一季度天然氣消費量同比增長1.6%。3月和4月工業活動的逐步重啟對天然氣消費的影響有限，因為世界其它地區的封鎖大幅降低了對出口商品的需求。

歐洲是受影響最嚴重的地區，到目前為止，同比下降了7%，主要原因是幾個國家的限制措施，因為其發電部門占總需求降幅的一半。

短期來看，由于需求減少，供應難以找到市場，主要現貨價格指數跌至歷史低點，而油價暴跌打擊了長期與石油掛鉤供應合同的收入——盡管最近幾周油價出現了部分回升。國際能源署表示，隨著現貨指數繼續走向新低，一些供應商正面臨虧損。

中短期來看，北美、非洲和俄羅斯在的項目在過去幾年陸續上線，項目數量不斷攀升，需求低于預期的情況將更加嚴重。僅在2019年就新增了960億立方米的額定產能。報告稱，這種供需錯位給確保生產來源多樣化和全球供應安全的未來投資帶來挑戰。

但并非所有天然氣需求的不確定性都是負面的。低油價繼續推動發電行業改用燃料，從煤炭轉向天然氣是去年推動能源消費增長的最大因素，每年增加了逾550億立方米。在美國，燃氣發電再創新高，占總發電量的38%，而燃煤發電則大幅下降，這一趨勢一直持續到2020年。

根據國際能源署的數據，印度的天然氣消耗量在2020年第一季度同比增長了約10%，但在3月25日實行全國封鎖后急劇下降。初步數據顯示，四月份的消費量同比下降了25%。小型工業和用于運輸的壓縮天然氣分銷是受沖擊最嚴重的部門，而燃氣發電增長了14%——盡管電力需求下降了24%，因為更便宜的進口天然氣滿足了高峰需求。

5月份逐步取消限制使印度的化工廠和下游工業得以重新開工，這應該會導致天然氣消費的反彈。而且，如果全球天然氣價格長期保持低位，對價格敏感的亞洲市場在增加天然氣使用量方面可能處于特別有利的地位。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Petroleum Economist

原文如下：

Asia to lead gas demand recovery – IEA

Gas will be more resilient to the effects of Covid-19 than coal and oil but is “far from immune”, says the IEA, as it forecasts the largest-ever demand decline in 2020

Global demand for natural gas is forecast to fall by 4pc, or 150bn m3, in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and “an exceptionally mild winter”, according to the IEA’s five-year gas market forecast, released today. Three-quarters of this slump will be in the mature markets of Europe, North America, and Asia and Eurasia.

Demand is expected to bounce back in 2021 and 2022—led by policy-driven growth in China and India—but it will not be a return to business as usual, according to the IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol. The agency expects the Covid-19 crisis to result in 75bn m3/yr of lost demand by 2025 compared with pre-pandemic forecasts.

As of early June, all major gas markets have experienced a fall in demand or, in the case of China, much more sluggish growth than before. According to China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), apparent gas consumption increased by 1.6pc year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. The progressive restart of industrial activity in March and April had a limited impact on gas use as lockdowns in other parts of the world sharply reduced demand for exported goods.

Europe has been the hardest hit region, with a 7pc year-on-year decline so far in 2020, mainly due to nationwide lockdowns in several countries. Its power generation sector accounts for half of the total demand decline.

Price challenges

In the short term, supplies struggling to find markets amid reduced demand have pressured major spot price indices to record lows, while collapsing oil prices have hit revenues from long-term oil-indexed supply contracts—although recent weeks have seen a partial oil price recovery. As spot indices continue to explore new lows, some suppliers are facing negative netbacks, says the IEA.

Over the short-to-medium term, the lower-than-expected demand will be compounded by the continuing ramp-up to plateau levels of projects in North America, Africa and Russia that have come online in the last few years. New nameplate capacity of 96bn m3/yr was added in 2019 alone. This supply-demand mismatch “cast[s] a shadow over the future investments needed to ensure the renewal of production sources and global security of supply”, says the report.

But not all gas demand uncertainties are to the downside. Low prices continue to drive fuel switching in power generation, with switching from coal to natural gas the largest single contributor to consumption growth last year, accounting for over 55bn m3/yr of additional demand. In the US, gas-fired power generation reached a new high, rising to a record share of 38pc of total generation while coal burn declined sharply, and the trend has continued into 2020.

Asian promise

India’s gas consumption rose by some 10pc year-on-year during the first quarter of 2020 but fell sharply after a nationwide lockdown was imposed on 25 March, according to IEA figures. Preliminary data suggests consumption was down by 25pc year-on-year in April. Small industry and compressed natural gas distribution for transport were the hardest hit sectors, while gas-fired power generation was up by 14pc—despite a 24pc fall in electricity demand—as cheaper gas imports were used to meet peak demand.

The progressive lifting of restrictions in May allowed Indian chemical plants, factories and downstream industries to restart, which should lead to a rebound in gas consumption. And, if global gas prices remain lower for longer, price-sensitive Asian markets could be particularly well-placed to up their gas use at the expense of competing fuels.