據世界石油6月16日倫敦報道，國際能源署(IEA)表示，隨著全球逐漸擺脫疫情影響，明年全球石油需求將會反彈，但要恢復到危機前的水平可能需要幾年時間。

總部位于巴黎的IEA在其對2021年的首次詳細評估中表示，明年全球燃料使用量將比2019年降低2.5%，主要原因是“航空業的嚴峻形勢”。

上述預測加劇了石油行業脆弱的前景。此前一天，出于對長期需求的擔憂，BP公司沖銷了數十億美元資產。盡管如此，該報告還是給生產商帶來了一些好消息。

報告稱，今年上半年“以更為樂觀的態勢結束”，因為在為遏制疫情傳播而實施的封鎖期間，需求損失沒有預期的那么嚴重。歐佩克+的減產和美國的停產應該會使市場在2021年出現赤字，從而耗盡今年迄今激增的15億桶石油庫存。

因經濟活動恢復且歐佩克及歐佩克＋削減產量，周二倫敦市場油價在每桶40美元上方交易，較4月底水準翻了一番。

向多數主要經濟體提供能源政策建議的IEA將其對第二季度石油日需求量的預估上調了210萬桶，在一定程度上緩和了原油日需求量的大幅下降。該機構執行主任法提赫·比羅爾(Fatih Birol)說，遠程工作等生活方式的改變不會觸發長期的燃料消耗穩定。

盡管如此，今年全球原油消費量仍將創紀錄地減少810萬桶。

雖然明年原油日產量將增加570萬桶，但平均每天9740萬桶仍比2019年的水平低240萬桶。IEA石油市場和行業主管Neil Atkinson在報告發布后的網絡會議上表示，需求可能要到2023年才能恢復到每天1億桶的水平。

至少就目前而言，現貨石油市場正在趨緊。

根據該機構的預測，庫存將在未來六個月迅速減少，理論上還會在2021年的每個季度減少。

IEA稱，歐佩克+在上個月的最新一輪產量限制措施上取得了“良好的開端”，實現了其每天減少970萬桶的承諾的89％。

然而，IEA警告稱，如果歐佩克+試圖隨著消費反彈而恢復產量，或者油價上漲重振了美國頁巖鉆探商，這種情況可能會改變。

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA expects oil demand to take 2+ years to recover

Global oil demand will rebound next year as the world emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, but recovering to pre-crisis levels may take a couple of years, the International Energy Agency said.

Fuel use around the world will remain 2.5% lower next year than in 2019, largely because of the “the dire situation of the aviation sector,” the Paris-based agency said in its first detailed assessment of 2021.

The projections add to a fragile outlook for the oil industry, coming a day after BP Plc wrote off billions in assets on concern over long-term demand. Still, the report contains some good news for producers.

The first half of this year is “ending on a more optimistic note” because demand losses during lockdowns to curb the spread of coronavirus weren’t as severe as expected, it said. Output cuts by OPEC+ and shutdowns in the U.S. should put the market into deficit in 2021, depleting the massive 1.5 billion-barrel surge in inventories seen so far this year.

Oil prices were trading above $40 a barrel in London on Tuesday, double the levels seen in late April, as economic activity resumes and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies slash supply.

The IEA -- which advises most major economies on energy policy -- bolstered its demand estimate for the second quarter by 2.1 million barrels a day, tempering some of the massive drop. Lifestyle changes such as working remotely won’t trigger a long-term leveling off in fuel use, said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.

Nonetheless, world crude consumption is still on course for a record contraction of 8.1 million barrels a day this year.

While it will climb by 5.7 million barrels a day next year, the average of 97.4 million a day will remain 2.4 million barrels a day below 2019 levels. Demand may not return to 100 million barrels a day until 2023, Neil Atkinson, the IEA’s head of oil markets and industry, said in a webinar after the release of the report.

For now at least, the physical oil market is tightening.

Stockpiles are on track to diminish rapidly over the next six months, and -- in theory -- decrease during each quarter of 2021, according to the agency’s forecasts.

OPEC+ made a “strong start” to its latest round of output curbs last month, delivering 89% of its pledge to cut 9.7 million barrels a day, the IEA said. Earlier this month, the alliance agreed to press on with the strategy, and members that haven’t yet implemented their share vowed to make up for it.

Next year, global demand is on track to exceed supply, with the projected recovery in oil production to be less than a third of the increase in fuel use, at 1.7 million barrels a day.

That could change however, if the OPEC+ coalition is tempted to revive output as consumption rebounds or if rising prices reinvigorate American shale drillers, the IEA cautioned.