據(jù)7月8日Oilfield Technology報(bào)道，安哥拉2019年平均石油日產(chǎn)量為138萬桶，預(yù)計(jì)2020年將達(dá)到140萬桶。盡管生產(chǎn)強(qiáng)勁，但該國早就意識到，其新增產(chǎn)量未來將可能出現(xiàn)連續(xù)多年的下滑（從2021年開始下降）。因此，該國推出了新的特許權(quán)使用費(fèi)和稅收制度，以吸引大型石油公司的投資。

Rystad Energy估計(jì)，這些激勵措施旨在幫助安哥拉恢復(fù)不斷被削減的產(chǎn)量，并在2029年達(dá)到新增75萬桶/天的峰值。新增的石油產(chǎn)量，再加上該國目前的產(chǎn)量，將使總產(chǎn)量非常接近2020年的水平。

然而，疫情導(dǎo)致的資本支出削減，可能會對該國實(shí)現(xiàn)未來的油氣計(jì)劃造成不利影響。目前，原計(jì)劃中的項(xiàng)目被推遲，勘探計(jì)劃也被擱置。在目前的市場形勢下，安哥拉面臨著來自巴西和圭亞那等其他市場的激烈競爭。

Rystad Energy估計(jì)，到2029年，安哥拉可能再也無法維持目前的生產(chǎn)水平，而不是恢復(fù)失去的產(chǎn)出。因此，預(yù)計(jì)新增產(chǎn)量峰值將會縮減至65萬桶/天，并且要到2032年才能達(dá)到，到那時(shí)，現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)量將會繼續(xù)從2029年的水平下降。

安哥拉在2018年和2019年增加了5億桶可采原油。該國和許多其他西非國家的項(xiàng)目都是首批被擱置的項(xiàng)目，因?yàn)檫@些離岸項(xiàng)目成本相對較高。那些在新的稅收優(yōu)惠政策下被認(rèn)為有利可圖的項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)被擱置了。

在勘探方面，安哥拉有宏偉的計(jì)劃。該國于2019年成立了國家石油、天然氣和生物燃料局(ANPG)，作為行業(yè)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)，并計(jì)劃在2019年底在納米貝盆地和本格拉盆地出售10個近海區(qū)塊。一項(xiàng)為期6年(2019年至2025年)的許可戰(zhàn)略提供了55個勘探區(qū)塊。

值得注意的是，ANPG決定推遲該國原定于2020年5月開始的2020年許可證發(fā)放。雪上加霜的是，油價(jià)暴跌已導(dǎo)致所有在安哥拉運(yùn)營的石油巨頭紛紛放棄或閑置鉆井平臺。

Rystad Energy的上游高級分析師Siva Prasad表示：“安哥拉迫切需要加快新的開發(fā)步伐，以減少不斷削減的產(chǎn)量。必須進(jìn)行更多的勘探，以取代枯竭的儲量。盡管政府努力讓安哥拉的業(yè)務(wù)對運(yùn)營商更有利，但除非政府迅速采取行動，否則投資者可能會退出安哥拉市場。”

政府將如何回應(yīng)，以及是否會以財(cái)政改革和運(yùn)營激勵的形式提供額外的激勵，以保持投資者的興趣，這些仍有待觀察。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Oilfield Technology

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: Covid-19 may forever spoil Angola’s plans to rebuild its declining oil production

Angola’s oil output averaged 1.38 million bpd last year and was forecast to reach 1.4 million bpd in 2020. Despite its robust level, the country has long realised that its existing production is on track for years of consecutive decline – deepening from 2021 – and introduced a new royalty and tax regime to attract investments from the majors.

The incentives were set to help Angola recover its declining production and add a peak of 750 000 new bpd in 2029, Rystad Energy estimates. The extra barrels, together with what remains from the country’s current production, would have driven total output very close to 2020 levels.

However, Covid-19-induced capital spending cuts may have thrown a wrench into the country’s plan for a bright oil and gas future. Projects which were in the pipeline have now been delayed and exploration plans are being shelved. And in the current market situation, Angola faces stiff competition from the other deepwater markets such as Brazil and Guyana.

Because of the new market reality, Rystad Energy now estimates that instead of rebuilding Angola’s lost output by 2029, the country will likely never manage to produce at current levels again. As a result, the estimated peak of new cumulative output will shrink to 650 000 bpd, and will only be reached in 2032, at which time output from currently-producing projects will have continued to fall from 2029 levels.

Angola added over half a billion barrels of recoverable crude oil volumes to the country’s coffers in 2018 and 2019. Projects in the country, along with many other Western African nations, were among the first to be put on hold since these were relatively high-cost offshore projects. The same projects which were deemed profitable under the new tax incentives have now been put on the backburner.

When it comes to exploration, Angola had grand plans. The National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG), was created as an industry regulator in the country in 2019 and plans were formulated to offer 10 frontier offshore acreages in the Namibe and Benguela basins at the end of 2019. A six-year (2019-2025) licensing strategy where 55 blocks were to be put on offer was created. Additional licensing in different modes was also in the works.

Instead, ANPG has decided to postpone the country’s 2020 licensing round, which was originally supposed to be launched by May 2020. Adding insult to injury, the oil price crash has led all the majors operating in Angola to ditch or leave their drilling rigs idle.

“Angola desperately needs to accelerate its new developments to reduce its declining production and must undertake more exploration to replace its depleted reserves. Despite the government’s efforts to make operations in the country more operator-friendly, investors may quit Angola unless the government acts swiftly,” said Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst in Rystad Energy.

It remains to be seen how the government responds and whether it offers any additional motivation in the form of fiscal changes and operational incentives to keep investors interested.