據彭博社8月5日報道，隨著本月歐佩克+的部分原油供應從本月恢復，對高硫燃料油的意外需求提振將有所緩解。

歐佩克的減產以及地緣政治因素，打擊了重質原油的供應，迫使從美國到印度的加工商加大對高硫燃料油的購買，以作為其煉油廠的替代原料。需求增加導致貿易出現逆轉，市場陷入供應小于需求的狀態，但隨著歐佩克+打開供應閥門，預計供應將變得更加充足。

雖然大量的燃料以前是用來為船舶提供動力的，但在今年實施了新的規定，要求船舶使用更清潔的燃料，除非在船上安裝了昂貴的凈化設備，隨后高硫燃料需求下降。最近的需求激增也與中東的季節性需求增長相吻合——中東進口燃料油用于夏季發電。

由于競爭加劇，沙特阿拉伯已被迫為其發電站尋求替代燃料油，而印度今年1-7月的高硫燃料油購買量較上年同期增長了兩倍以上。Vortexa Ltd.高級分析師Serena Huang表示，通常從歐洲和俄羅斯運往新加坡的原油已轉往美國，作為煉油廠的原料。

據知情交易員透露，泰國和韓國的煉油商近幾個月也購買了更多燃料油，用作替代原料。這些國家進口石油的時間與沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克等國大幅削減石油供應的時間一致，這兩個產油國傾向于出口高硫原油。

據彭博社數據顯示7月初，新加坡高硫燃料油價格自2月份以來首次出現現貨溢價，暗示供應趨緊。

JBC Energy的數據顯示，上月石油市場吃緊，缺口超過50萬桶/天，超過5年平均水平。JBC表示，預計到今年年底，原油短缺將緩解至每天10萬桶的較正常的水平，而伍德曼肯茲公司也認為供應緊張狀況將有所緩和。煉油廠可以使用燃料油作為工廠二級裝置的原料，以生產柴油和其他高端產品。

伍德麥肯茲亞太區煉油業務研究總監蘇珊特?古普塔（Sushant Gupta）表示，印度信實工業有限公司（Reliance Industries Ltd.）等擁有二級燃料油升級裝置的綜合煉油企業將受益最大，因為它們在沒有重質原油的情況下可以靈活使用替代原料。根據JBC的數據，相比之下，歐洲的基礎煉油廠在原油價格過高后不得不關閉或降低運行率。

然而，隨著歐佩克取消歷史性的供應限制措施，并向市場恢復更多供應，專門加工重質含硫原油的煉油廠將恢復使用更熟悉的原料，從而減少對燃料油的購買。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Dirty Oil’s Unusual Demand Boost Set to Wane on OPEC+ Easing

An unexpected demand boost for dirty fuel oil is poised to ease with the return of some OPEC+ crude supply from this month.

Cuts by the producer alliance, hitting supplies of heavier crude and forcing processors from the U.S. to India to boost buying of high-sulfur fuel oil to use as an alternative feedstock in their refineries. Typically a by-product of crude refining, increased demand upended trade flows and drove the market into a deep deficit, but supply is expected to become more abundant as refiners switch back to crude with OPEC+ opening the taps.

While a large chunk of the fuel was previously used to power ships, consumption has waned after new regulations were implemented this year mandating vessels use cleaner burning fuels unless they are fitted with expensive pollution kits. The recent demand surge also coincided with a seasonal boost from the Middle East, which imports fuel oil for use in electricity generation during the hotter summer months.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to tap alternative markets for its power-station fuel due to intensifying competition, while Indian high-sulfur fuel oil purchases more than tripled through January to July from a year earlier. Shipments typically bound for Singapore from Europe and Russia have been diverted to the U.S. for refinery feedstock, said Serena Huang, a senior analyst with Vortexa Ltd.

Refiners in Thailand and South Korea have also purchased more fuel oil in recent months to use as an alternative feedstock, according to traders familiar with the matter. The timing of their imports was in-line with sharp cuts to supplies from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two producers that tend to export sulfurous and high-density crude.

High-sulfur fuel oil prices in Singapore flipped into backwardation in early July for the first time since February, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data, signaling tighter supply.

The market tightened to a deficit of more than 500,000 barrels a day last month, more than the five-year average, according to JBC Energy. The shortage is expected to ease to a “more normal” 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, said JBC, while Wood Mackenzie Ltd. also sees supply tightness moderating. Refiners can use fuel oil as a feedstock for secondary units at a plant to produce fuels such as diesel and other higher-end products.

Complex refiners such as India’s Reliance Industries Ltd.,which have the secondary units to upgrade fuel oil, would benefit the most because they have the flexibility to use the alternative feedstock when heavy crude isn’t available, said Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia Pacific refining at Wood Mackenzie. That compares with simple refiners in Europe that had to shut down or cut run rates after crude became too expensive, according to JBC.

However, as OPEC+ rolls back historic curbs and return more supplies to the market, refiners tailored to process heavy-sour crudes will revert to the more familiar feedstock, reducing their purchases of fuel oil.