據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，IHS Markit在周四的一份分析報(bào)告中表示，受全球新冠疫情和低油價(jià)的影響，今年海上鉆機(jī)的需求將大幅下降，這迫使海上鉆井運(yùn)營(yíng)商推遲鉆井活動(dòng)，但海上鉆機(jī)行業(yè)將于2022年卷土重來(lái)。

IHS Markit資深海上鉆井平臺(tái)市場(chǎng)分析師Cinnamon Edralinis表示，由于新冠病毒前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)和隨之而來(lái)的石油需求崩潰，大多數(shù)預(yù)計(jì)將授予承包商海上作業(yè)的運(yùn)營(yíng)商已經(jīng)將時(shí)間最早推遲到明年。

鉆探市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)2022年的需求將被抑制，需求將從今年的水平上升到2021年和2022年。 根據(jù)IHS Markit的預(yù)測(cè)，到2022年，全球?qū)︺@探船的需求為73臺(tái)，而2021年為66臺(tái)，今年為59臺(tái)。

該咨詢公司表示，大部分鉆探船需求將集中在南美和西非。在南美洲，巴西將成為2022年鉆井船需求的主要熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)，此外還有圭亞那(埃克森美孚公司的重大發(fā)現(xiàn))，以及蘇里南(阿帕奇公司和道達(dá)爾公司剛剛在蘇里南發(fā)現(xiàn)了一處重大油田)。

不過(guò)，IHS Markit表示，美國(guó)墨西哥灣的鉆探船需求預(yù)計(jì)將從明年的17臺(tái)下降到14臺(tái)，因?yàn)橐恍┻\(yùn)營(yíng)商等待更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，等待市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)穩(wěn)定下來(lái)，然后才會(huì)提供新的作業(yè)。

在半成品市場(chǎng)，短期內(nèi)預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)榘氤善肥袌?chǎng)尚未從上次新冠疫情襲來(lái)時(shí)的崩潰中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Demand For Offshore Oil Rigs To Return In 2022

Demand for offshore rigs will slump this year as a result of the pandemic and the low oil prices that are forcing offshore operators to delay drilling activities, but the offshore rig industry is set for a comeback in 2022, IHS Markit said in an analysis on Thursday.

Due to the unprecedented challenges of COVID-19 and the subsequent crash in oil demand, most operators that were expected to award contractor work offshore have pushed the timelines to next year at the earliest, Cinnamon Edralinis, Senior Offshore Rig Market Analyst at IHS Markit, said.

The drillship market should expect pent-up demand in 2022, with demand rising from this year’s levels through 2021 and 2022. Global demand for drillships is forecast to average 73 units over 2022, up from 66 units for 2021 and 59 units through 2020, according to IHS Markit

Most of the drillship demand will be concentrated in South America and West Africa, the consultancy said. In South America, Brazil will be a major hotspot for drillship demand in 2022, alongside Guyana with ExxonMobil’s major discoveries, as well as Suriname, where Apache and Total have just made a new major oil discovery.

Drillship demand in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, however, is expected to see demand next year down from 17 to 14 units, as some operators wait a bit longer for market conditions to stabilize before awarding new work, IHS Markit said.

In the semi segment, recovery is not expected to occur in the short term, because the semi market had not started to recover from the previous crash when the pandemic hit.

Most of the drillship demand will be concentrated in South America and West Africa, the consultancy said. In South America, Brazil will be a major hotspot for drillship demand in 2022, alongside Guyana with ExxonMobil’s major discoveries, as well as Suriname, where Apache and Total have just made a new major oil discovery.

Drillship demand in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, however, is expected to see demand next year down from 17 to 14 units, as some operators wait a bit longer for market conditions to stabilize before awarding new work, IHS Markit said.

In the semi segment, recovery is not expected to occur in the short term, because the semi market had not started to recover from the previous crash when the pandemic hit.