據(jù)今日石油2020年8月31日報道，根據(jù)IHS Markit日前發(fā)表的一份最新分析報告，自新冠肺炎疫情在4月份導(dǎo)致的石油需求崩潰觸底以來，世界石油需求正以創(chuàng)紀錄的速度增長——在過去4個月里平均每天增加了1300萬桶。但是，隨著全球原油需求停滯在略低于新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，預(yù)計這一增長速度將逐漸放緩。

隨著一些限制放寬，全球石油需求從5月份到7月份出現(xiàn)了大幅增長，目前全球石油需求已達到去年水平的89%，而4月份為78%。

IHS Markit預(yù)計，到2021年第一季度，全球石油需求增長將放緩，并穩(wěn)定在9200萬- 9500萬桶/天或約為上年水平的92%-95%的水平上。

預(yù)計造成全球石油需求增長將放緩的主要原因是旅行——特別是空中旅行和乘公交車上下班——在疫情得到控制和疫苗得到廣泛供應(yīng)之前仍將受到抑制。

IHS Markit副總裁兼石油市場主管Jim Burkhard說：“世界石油需求已從崩盤時的最低點迅速上升，這將導(dǎo)致石油需求的全面回升，至少目前是這樣。但要想需求完全恢復(fù)，旅行——尤其是航空旅行和乘公交車上下班往返——需要恢復(fù)正常。而這在病毒得到控制和有效的疫苗出現(xiàn)之前是不會發(fā)生的。”

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

World oil demand has grown by 13 million bpd over last 4 months – to plateau just below pre-COVID levels

World oil demand has grown at a record pace—by 13 million barrels per day in the last four months—since the bottom of the COVID-induced collapse in April. But that pace of growth is expected to taper off with global crude demand plateauing just below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by IHS Markit.

Global crude demand surged from May to July with the easing of some COVID-19 restrictions and now rests at 89% of prior year levels–compared to being at 78% in April.

IHS Markit expects demand growth to wane and plateau at 92-95 mbd (or roughly 92-95% of prior year levels) through the first quarter of 2021.

The main cause for the pause is expected to be travel—especially air travel and commuting to work—remaining subdued until COVID-19 is contained and are vaccines widely available.

“The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the COVID crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now. For demand to fully return, travel—especially air travel and commuting to work—needs to get back normal. And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines,” said Jim Burkhard, IHS Markit Vice President and head of oil markets.