據鉆機地帶9月18日彭博社報道， 墨西哥石油公司(PetroleosMexicanos)預計，未來三年石油出口將大幅下降，因為該公司面臨著產量下降和投資80億美元新建的煉油廠供應原油的雙重挑戰。

據兩位知情人士透露，墨西哥國家石油公司(Pemex)預計，2021年至2023年，其旗艦重質原油瑪雅油（Maya）的出口將減少近70%。該知情人士表示，預計明年至2022年期間，瑪雅的出口將減少近一半，2022年至2023年期間將再次減少。由于信息尚未公開，該人士要求不具名。

Pemex的代表沒有回復置評請求。

墨西哥承諾提高國內燃料產量，以減少對汽油進口的依賴。墨西哥國家石油公司在墨西哥銷售的汽油中，汽油約占65%。

該策略的核心是一個將加工Maya的新煉油廠。墨西哥現有的6家煉油廠混合了Maya和一種國內輕質原油Isthmus。在塔巴斯科州建造的新工廠將擁有日產34萬桶石油的加工能力。

一些批判人士認為，Dos Bocas煉油廠在2023年完工的計劃過于雄心勃勃。目前運營的6家工廠只有其產能的三分之一，而一旦汽油產量增加，就會出現額外的虧損。

Pemex在中斷一年半后，于去年12月恢復了 Isthmus原油出口。但隨著Pemex努力扭轉連續15年的產量下滑，較重品級的出口出現下滑。據彭博社收集的數據顯示，今年7月，該公司每天出口88.8萬桶重質原油，較上年同期下降23%，其中包括Maya、Altamira和Talam。8月份墨西哥國家石油公司近80%的原油發貨量來自瑪雅。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Pemex Sees Plunge in Oil Exports

Petroleos Mexicanos expects a drastic drop in oil exports over the next three years as the company faces the twin challenges of declining output and supplying crude to a controversial new $8 billion refinery championed.

Pemex, as the state oil company is also called, is forecasting a reduction of almost 70% in exports of its flagship heavy crude known as Maya between 2021 and 2023, according to two people familiar with the situation. It expects to cut Maya exports by almost half between next year and 2022 and lower them again between 2022 and 2023, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public.

A Pemex representative didn’t respond to a request for comment.

AMLO swept into power in December 2018 promising to rescue Pemex by dialing back his predecessor’s 2013-2014 energy reforms, which had ended the company’s nearly eight decades-long monopoly. He has also pledged to ramp up domestic fuel production to reduce dependence on gasoline imports, which account for about 65% of what Pemex sells in Mexico.

At the heart of this policy is a new refinery that will process Maya. Mexico’s six existing refineries blend Maya and a lighter domestic crude, Isthmus. The new plant being built in state of Tabasco will have the capacity to process 340,000 barrels of oil a day.

The timeline for finishing the Dos Bocas refinery by 2023 is viewed by some critics as overly ambitious. The six plants currently operating do so at just one-third of their capacity and post additional losses when they produce more gasoline.

Pemex restarted exports of Isthmus crude in December after not doing so for a year and a half. But exports of heavier grades have fallen as Pemex struggles to reverse 15 consecutive years of output declines. In July, the company exported 888,000 barrels a day of heavy crudes including Maya, Altamira and Talam, a 23% drop from a year earlier. Maya represented almost 80% of Pemex’s crude shipments in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.