據(jù)天然氣新聞2020年9月22日休斯敦報道，專家小組成員在9月22日舉行的能源會議網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會上表示，美國頁巖油日產(chǎn)量可能達到2019年年底實現(xiàn)的超過1300萬桶的新高，盡管要達到這個水平還需要油價在60美元/桶左右。

上游專家在雷斯塔能源公司2020年美洲虛擬年度峰會說，今年大部分時間和2021年缺乏鉆井活動應(yīng)該逐步把價格推高到重新啟動鉆井活動所需的WTI每桶60美元水平，WTI在低石油需求和低油價的雙重威脅下已失去活力。

雷斯塔能源公司勘探開發(fā)研究副總裁Leslie Wei說：“如果供應(yīng)要跟上需求，未來我們需要大量的頁巖油。”“我們認(rèn)為，未來需要從迄今尚未開鉆的井中每天交付600萬到1100萬桶頁巖油。”

他說，為了啟動這一活動并重新啟動新的頁巖活動上升，“我們認(rèn)為油價需要從目前的水平大幅恢復(fù)”。過去幾周，油價已經(jīng)回落到了每桶30多美元的中高水平。

他說，油價的好轉(zhuǎn)應(yīng)該會給頁巖參與商提供必要的現(xiàn)金流，來重新開始投資該行業(yè)。

從2020年3月開始，由于勘探和生產(chǎn)運營商削減上游預(yù)算以及把鉆井量降至最低水平，上游投資開始大幅下降，導(dǎo)致美國在用油氣鉆機數(shù)從3月初的大約835部下降了65%以上。

他說，今年美國的投資下降了50%，下降到了只有1000億美元。

李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

原文如下：

US shale production can reach new highs beyond 13 million b/d, but needs $60/b: Rystad

US shale oil production can reach new highs beyond the 13 million b/d mark achieved in late 2019, although it will take oil prices of around $60/b for that to occur, panelists said at an energy conference webinar Sept. 22.

A dearth of well drilling for most of this year and into 2021 should gradually bring up prices to a level around $60/b WTI needed to restart activity, which has languished from the twin bogeys of low oil demand and low prices, upstream specialists said at the Rystad Energy 2020 Americas Virtual Annual Summit.

"If supply is to keep up with demand, we need a lot of shale volumes going forward," Leslie Wei, Rystad's vice president of E&P research, said. "We believe shale needs to deliver 6 million-11 million b/d from wells not yet drilled."

To unlock this activity and restart a new shale activity upcycle, "we believe oil prices need to recover significantly from today's levels," which in the last couple of weeks have dropped back into the mid-to-high $30s/b, Wei said.

Improvement in oil price should give shale players the required cash flows to start investing in the industry again, Wei said.

Upstream investment began to plummet in March 2020 from the pandemic as E&P operators slashed upstream budgets and reduced drilling to a minimum, causing the US oil and gas rig count to plummet more than 65% from its early March volume of around 835.

US investments dropped 50% to only $100 billion this year, Wei said.