據(jù)俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)維也納報道，總部位于維也納的歐佩克日前在其《2020年世界石油展望》報告中概述了其對全球經(jīng)濟、石油和能源需求的中長期預(yù)期。該展望報告預(yù)測的時間首次延長至2045年。

報告說：“人們將記住2020年，主要是因為Covid-19無所不在，其規(guī)模和涉及范圍史無前例。從能源角度來看，經(jīng)濟衰退導(dǎo)致的能源和石油需求出現(xiàn)了人們記憶中最嚴(yán)重的下滑。”

報告說，全球石油需求預(yù)計將從2019年的近1億桶/天增加到2045年的大約1.09億桶/天。在經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)國家，石油需求預(yù)計將在2022-2025年間保持在每天大約4700萬桶的穩(wěn)定水平上，到2045年將開始下降到每天3500萬桶。相比之下，非經(jīng)合組織國家的需求預(yù)計將在預(yù)測期間增加2250萬桶/天，從2019年的近5200萬桶/天增加到2045年的7400萬桶/天。

報告稱，到2045年，石油在全球能源結(jié)構(gòu)中仍將占最大的貢獻(27%)，其次是天然氣(25%)和煤炭(20%)。其他可再生能源——主要包括太陽能、風(fēng)能和地?zé)崮堋骄磕暝鲩L6.6%，明顯快于其他任何能源。

歐佩克的報告表示，到2045年，全球石油行業(yè)的上游、中游、下游合計需要12.6萬億美元的投資。未來數(shù)年仍將需要石油，即使長期需求停滯，石油仍將是全球能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的重要組成部分。

歐佩克預(yù)計，到2045年，全球人口將增至近95億，全球運輸和工業(yè)部門對化石燃料的需求也將持續(xù)增加到2045年。

疫情爆發(fā)導(dǎo)致了人們記憶中最嚴(yán)重的能源和石油需求下滑。盡管2020年出現(xiàn)了大幅下降，但全球一次性能源需求預(yù)計在中長期內(nèi)將繼續(xù)增長，到2045年期間將大幅增加25%。

歐佩克報告稱：“由于新冠肺炎疫情大流行導(dǎo)致的停產(chǎn)及其對全球經(jīng)濟和消費者行為的影響，全球未來的石油需求可能會持續(xù)低于過去的預(yù)測。”歐佩克預(yù)計，全球石油需求將在2022年恢復(fù)并超過2019年的水平。

李峻 編譯自 俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC: Global oil demand will keep rising until around 2040

In its 2020 World Oil Outlook, for the 1st time extended to 2045, the Vienna-based cartel outlined its medium to long-term expectations for the global economy, oil and energy demand.

“The year 2020 will be remembered primarily for the omnipresence, as well as unprecedented scale and reach, of the Covid-19. From an energy point of view, the lockdown-induced economic recession has resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory,” OPEC said in the report.

Globally, oil demand is projected to increase from nearly 100 mb/d in 2019 to around 109 mb/d in 2045. In OECD countries, oil demand is expected to plateau at around 47 mb/d during the period 2022-2025 before starting a longer-term decline towards 35 mb/d by 2045. In contrast, demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by 22.5 mb/d over the forecast period, from nearly 52 mb/d in 2019 to 74 mb/d in 2045.

According to the report, oil would remain the largest contributor to the energy mix through to 2045 (27%), followed by gas (25%) and coal (20%). Other renewables – combining mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will grow by 6.6% p.a. on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.

The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $12.6 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045. “Oil will be needed for years to come, and even if demand plateaus in the long term, it will remain a key fixture in the energy mix,” OPEC ’s report said.

OPEC expects the global population will increase to almost 9.5 billion by 2045, demand for fossil fuels in the global transport and industrial sectors will also continue to grow through 2045.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory. Despite the large drop in 2020, global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 25% in the period to 2045.

“Future demand will likely remain persistently below past projections due to the lingering effects of the pandemic-related shutdowns and their impact on the global economy and consumer behaviour,” the Opec report said. The cartel sees global oil demand returning and exceeding 2019 levels in 2022.