據(jù)油價網(wǎng)10月12日報道，國際能源署(IEA)周一表示，盡管近幾個月天然氣消費量有所上升，但2020年全球天然氣需求仍將出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)紀錄降幅。

根據(jù)該機構(gòu)的最新報告《2020年全球天然氣安全評估》，今年全球天然氣需求將下降3%，即下降1200億立方米，是有史以來降幅最大的一年。

四個月前，IEA曾預(yù)測，到2020年，天然氣需求將同比下降4%，即下降1500億立方米。IEA當(dāng)時表示，這將是2008年金融危機后需求損失的兩倍。IEA稱，所有地區(qū)的天然氣需求都將受到?jīng)_擊，但歐洲、北美、亞洲和歐亞大陸的成熟市場受到的沖擊將最大，這些市場將占今年天然氣消耗損失的75%左右。

總部位于巴黎的IEA如今修改了今年的需求預(yù)期，但仍預(yù)計今年的需求降幅將是全球天然氣市場歷史上最大的降幅。

IEA表示，盡管進行了這一修正，但預(yù)計今年全球天然氣需求仍將出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)紀錄的最大降幅。

該機構(gòu)表示，明年天然氣需求將比2020年增長3%，但增加的不確定性使前景蒙上陰影。

IEA稱，新冠肺炎病例的再次出現(xiàn)和疫情持續(xù)的前景給2021年的復(fù)蘇步伐帶來了進一步的不確定性，導(dǎo)致前一份報告的數(shù)據(jù)向下調(diào)整。2021年全球天然氣需求的復(fù)蘇可能會受到亞洲、非洲和中東市場快速增長的支持。

該機構(gòu)警告稱，在更成熟的市場，復(fù)蘇將更加緩慢，可能要到2022年或更晚的時候，需求才能恢復(fù)到新冠疫情之前的水平。

IEA執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾在一份聲明中表示，全球天然氣需求自6月以來已逐步復(fù)蘇，主要受新興市場推動。

比羅爾補充道，但是，這并不意味著一切都會恢復(fù)正常，因為當(dāng)前的危機可能會產(chǎn)生長期的影響。

郝芬 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA: Natural Gas Demand To See Largest Drop Ever In 2020

Despite some uptick in consumption in recent months, the world’s demand for natural gas is still set to see its biggest drop on record in 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

According to the agency’s new report, Global Gas Security Review 2020, global natural gas demand is set to decline by 3 percent, or by 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), this year, the largest drop ever.

Four months ago, the IEA had forecast that natural gas demand would drop by 4 percent year on year in 2020, or by 150 billion cubic meters. This would represent twice the amount of demand lost after the 2008 financial crisis, the IEA said back then. Gas demand in all regions will be hit, but the biggest impact will be felt in mature markets across Europe, North America, Asia, and Eurasia which together will account for about 75 percent of lost gas consumption this year, the IEA said.

Now the Paris-based revised up its demand outlook for this year, but it still expects a drop that would be the largest decline in history of global gas markets.

“In spite of this revision, 2020 is still assumed to experience the largest recorded drop in global natural gas,” the IEA said.

Next year, natural gas demand is set to increase by 3 percent compared to 2020, but increased uncertainties cloud the outlook, according to the agency.

“The resurgence of Covid-19 cases and the prospect of a prolonged pandemic brings further uncertainty to the pace of recovery in 2021, which has led to a downward adjustment from the previous report. The recovery of global gas demand in 2021 is likely to be supported by fast-growing markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East,” the IEA said.

Recovery is set to be slower in more mature markets, which may not see demand returning to the pre-COVID-19 levels until 2022 or later, the agency warned.

“Global gas demand has been progressively recovering since June, driven mainly by emerging markets,” IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

“However, this does not mean a return to business as usual, as the current crisis could have long-lasting repercussions,” Birol added.