據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站3月15日莫斯科報(bào)道，根據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)顯示，未來6個(gè)月，全球煉油廠將大幅增加原油加工量，以穩(wěn)定汽油和柴油等燃料的庫存，即便旅行和服務(wù)業(yè)企業(yè)仍將受到新冠疫情的實(shí)質(zhì)性控制。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)每周公布的可靠庫存數(shù)據(jù)顯示，第二季度，尤其是第三季度，加工量預(yù)期上升以及原油庫存的相應(yīng)減少，推動(dòng)了期貨價(jià)格上漲，并導(dǎo)致價(jià)差收緊。石油市場(chǎng)從去年的大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)過剩迅速演變?yōu)楣?yīng)不足，這一點(diǎn)在美國(guó)表現(xiàn)得最為明顯。

3月5日，美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備以外的原油和產(chǎn)品庫存為12.83億桶，僅比過去五年的平均水平高出1%，即高出1,200萬桶。原油庫存較5年平均水平高出6%，即2,900萬桶，主要由于上個(gè)月德州寒冷天氣和停電導(dǎo)致煉油廠供應(yīng)中斷。但成品燃料和中間煉油產(chǎn)品的庫存已降至1500萬桶，比2016-2020年的平均水平低2%。汽油短缺變得尤為嚴(yán)重，庫存為1500萬桶，比五年平均水平低6%。

自去年7月以來，原油和成品油的總庫存減少了1.68億桶，在很大程度上扭轉(zhuǎn)了去年3-6月期間因疫情和沙特阿拉伯與俄羅斯之間的數(shù)量戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)而增加的1.98億桶。未來幾個(gè)月，美國(guó)煉油廠將不得不加快原油加工和燃料生產(chǎn)，以防止庫存進(jìn)一步減少。

如果對(duì)旅行、服務(wù)和國(guó)際客運(yùn)航空的新冠疫情控制放松，將對(duì)消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生更大的推動(dòng)作用。但有必要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，即使保持控制，防止燃料庫存下降到不受歡迎的低水平，原油加工也必須加快。

石油庫存的枯竭在美國(guó)最為明顯，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)有高頻率的實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)，但這種現(xiàn)象是世界性的。

根據(jù)EIA數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自去年7月以來，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）成員國(guó)的商業(yè)石油庫存已減少約2.84億桶，抵消了去年2-6月期間增加的3.35億桶的大部分。今年3月，OECD庫存可能會(huì)略低于過去5年的平均水平，這是自去年2月疫情蔓延以來的首次。

郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

Global oil inventories to become tight by mid-2021

Global refineries will increase crude processing sharply over the next six months to stabilise stocks of fuels such as gasoline and diesel – even if substantial coronavirus controls remain on travel and service sector businesses, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The prospective rise in processing and consequent draw down in crude inventories in the second and especially third quarters is what has been boosting futures prices and causing calendar spreads to tighten. The oil market’s rapid evolution from a massive production surplus last year to deficit has been most evident in the United States, where reliable data on stocks is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. inventories of crude and products outside the strategic petroleum reserve amounted to 1,283 million barrels on March 5, which was just 12 million barrels or 1% above the previous five-year average. Crude stocks were 29 million barrels or 6% above the five-year average, mostly as result of the disruption to refineries caused by cold weather and power failures in Texas last month.

But inventories of finished fuels and intermediate refinery products had already fallen to 15 million barrels or 2% below the average for 2016-2020. The gasoline shortfall has become particularly severe, with inventories 15 million barrels or 6% below the five-year average.

Total stocks of crude and products have fallen by 168 million barrels since July, largely reversing the 198 million build between March and June associated with the epidemic and volume war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the next few months, U.S. refineries will have to accelerate crude processing and fuel production to prevent stocks from depleting further.

If coronavirus controls on travel, services and international passenger aviation are relaxed, that would provide an even bigger boost to consumption. But it is important to stress that crude processing will have to accelerate even if controls are maintained to prevent fuel stocks from eroding to undesirably low levels.

The depletion of petroleum inventories is most obvious in the United States because of its high-frequency real-time data, but the phenomenon is worldwide.

Commercial petroleum inventories in the OECD countries have fallen by around 284 million barrels since July, reversing most of the 335 million barrel build between last February and June, according to the EIA. In March, OECD inventories are likely to fall slightly below the average for the previous five years, for the first time since the epidemic started to spread in February last year.