據(jù)3月22日Oil Now報(bào)道，在美洲裝貨的中型油輪可能會(huì)在第二季度運(yùn)費(fèi)趨于下降，因?yàn)榕c天氣有關(guān)的港口物流中斷，并使原本受新冠肺炎疫情影響的阿芙拉型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)的主要看漲因素消失。但普氏公司的一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，在全球新冠肺炎疫情環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩的情況下，圭亞那的石油出后量增加會(huì)對(duì)抗低迷的市場(chǎng)運(yùn)價(jià)。

蘇伊士型船板塊的業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)常會(huì)從超級(jí)油輪和阿芙拉型船市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移，因?yàn)橹行陀洼喣軌蜻M(jìn)行多樣化的航行，對(duì)租船人來(lái)說(shuō)，往往比同類(lèi)船更實(shí)惠，這導(dǎo)致蘇伊士型船運(yùn)費(fèi)較高成為連鎖反應(yīng)。

根據(jù)普氏的數(shù)據(jù)，埃克森美孚、66號(hào)菲利普斯和默庫(kù)里亞在2月和3月會(huì)優(yōu)先選擇蘇伊士型船而非阿芙拉型船。一位蘇伊士型船船東3月17日表示：“蘇伊士型船和巴拿馬型船市場(chǎng)仍然是阿芙拉型船市場(chǎng)的奴隸。”

然而，對(duì)于在美洲裝貨的蘇伊士型船來(lái)說(shuō)，并非所有的箭頭都指向下方，因?yàn)槟厦赖貐^(qū)（即巴西和圭亞那）的出運(yùn)量在過(guò)去一年中有所上升，并在未來(lái)幾天內(nèi)繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)勁的勢(shì)頭，使運(yùn)價(jià)在進(jìn)入夏季低迷期時(shí)保持穩(wěn)定。

每月約有三艘蘇伊士型船規(guī)模的貨物在圭亞那裝船，這是自2020年10月以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的模式。圭亞那蘇伊士型船的裝貨量與在科偉尼亞斯裝貨的四艘貨物形成競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

這一趨勢(shì)始于2020年，Liza浮式生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)存和卸載船在投入運(yùn)營(yíng)僅一年之后，于2020年12月達(dá)到了12萬(wàn)桶/天的標(biāo)志性產(chǎn)能。

預(yù)計(jì)該地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量只會(huì)進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)榘？松梨谀壳坝械诙偷谌褾PSO正在開(kāi)發(fā)中，計(jì)劃于2022年和2024年投產(chǎn)。埃克森美孚還表示，計(jì)劃到2026年至少有5個(gè)FPSO到位，達(dá)到每日75萬(wàn)桶的產(chǎn)能，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看可能會(huì)有10個(gè)之多。

對(duì)貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期影響尚待確定，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)墨西哥灣沿岸仍然是蘇伊士美出口美洲的主要來(lái)源。“目前，圭亞那的問(wèn)題更多的是石油問(wèn)題，而不是航運(yùn)問(wèn)題，我們將拭目以待。”

馮于榮 摘譯自 Oil Now

原文如下：

Guyana oil exports driving Suezmax fortunes

Midsize tankers loading in the Americas could see freight rates taper down in the second quarter, as weather-related port logistic disruptions will decrease to a seasonal low and remove the main bullish factor from the otherwise pandemic-affected Aframax and Suezmax freight markets. But increased trade flows out of Guyana could combat depressed market rates amid the volatile global pandemic environment, S&P Global Platts said in a report.

The Suezmax segment often sees shifts in business from the VLCC and Aframax markets, as the medium-sized tanker is able to make a diverse range of voyages and can often times quickly become more economical for charterers over their counterparts, which has led to firming Suezmax freight as a knock-on effect.

ExxonMobil, Phillips 66 and Mercuria were among several charterers that have preferred Suezmaxes over Aframaxes in February and March.

“The Suezmax and Panamax markets remain a slave to the Aframax market,” a Suezmax shipowner said March 17.

Yet not all arrows are pointing down for Suezmaxes loading in the Americas, as volumes out of South American locations, namely Brazil and Guyana, have ramped up over the past year and continue to show strength into the coming days, keeping rates afloat heading into the summer doldrum months.

This trend began in 2020, as the Liza floating production storage and offloading vessel ramped up to a nameplate capacity of 120,000 b/d in December 2020, after being only a year into operation.

Suezmax loadings of Liza crude entered the market at a time when typical Caribbean loadings have slowed amid US sanctions on Venezuela that were imposed in January 2019, which has left Covenas, Colombia, the only major export port in the region.

Production out of the region is only expected to grow further, as ExxonMobil currently has second and third FPSOs undergoing development that are planned to come online in 2022 and 2024, respectively. ExxonMobil has also stated plans to have at least five FPSOs in place by 2026 to reach a capacity of 750,000 b/d, with the potential to have as many as 10 in the long term.

Long-term impacts to the freight markets are yet to be determined as the US Gulf Coast remains the main source of Suezmax exports out of the Americas.

“The Guyana play is currently more of an oil story than a shipping story as of now, but we will see”.